Having two major Western political powers and a couple of tiny states and colonies, Oceania is one of the regions contested by the two Chinas-- the Republic (ROC) that once ruled over the mainland but has receded to and based itself in Taibei (Taipei) since 1949, and the "People's Republic" (PRC) that ousted the former and now building its global influence. After the former lost its representation for China in the United Nations through UN General Assembly (UNGA) Resolution 2758, it is now trying to save what was left as recognition of majority of the countries shifted to PRC, though it can cling on the hopes of the West challenging PRC's attempts of hegemony.
The four remaining states recognising ROC are Palau, Marshall Islands, Nauru and Tuvalu. Palau is one of the staunchest supporters of the Taiwan-based administration, while Tuvalu remained siding to ROC after neighbouring Kiribati in its north shifted to PRC in 2019.
(Side note: I have no trust with the Nauruan regime, which backs Russia's Vladimir Putin (read more); current president Lionel Aingimea served as deputy justice minister under pro-Putin predecessor Baron Waqa and justice and borders minister David Adeang, so there are bare changes in the country's human rights situation.)
Such shift by the regime of still-president Taneti Maamau shook Gilbertese politics and made a divide between the pro-PRC camp (Tobwaan Kiribati Party) and the anti-PRC/pro-ROC camp (Kamanoan Kiribati Party, then Boutokaan Kiribati Moa Party). The latter side expressed concerns last May after it exposed the Taneti regime's plans to revive an airstrip in the country with PRC funding, which could fuel tensions with United States as it is nearest to occupied state of Hawai'i.
Kiribati's surprising move is not ROC's recent loss in Oceania, as it also lost Solomon Islands to PRC days after, and it did not happen without political feud: the Solomons opposition questions the switch by prime minister Manasseh Sogarave, while the governor of Malaita province, Daniel Suidani, is a stiff ally of the ROC, and he threatened the national authorities in September 2020 that the province will split from the Melanesian archipelago as protest to the switch. Suidani was flown to Taibei this month for his brain tumour treatment, something that further aggravated the rift as the regime did not authorise his evacuation.
Oceania's two major countries-- Australia and New Zealand-- do not recognise the ROC, but the former could shift towards it as it is having tensions with PRC, particularly because of the mainland regime's human rights abuses. Australia joined the calls for an enquiry on the origins of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), irking Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials. This resulted to an ongoing trade war, and both nations filed complaints against each other to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). More of the relations between the two powers will be discussed in a later CCP@100 article.
New Zealand (Aotearoa) also criticises PRC's human rights record, but finds itself at odds with its closest ally, Australia, as it refuses to join it along with Canada, the United Kingdom and the USA (all its partners in the Five Eyes Alliance (FVEY)) in their debate against the CCP regime. As the AU-PRC spat continues, trade minister Damien O'Connor offered to mediate between the two nations, only to get denounced within NZ for such remark; as a result he then backed Oz as the meeting of the countries' prime ministers neared last month. Meanwhile, foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta distanced the country from its FVEY partners concerning rights abuses in PRC-held territories but told that Aotearoa, not the alliance, will dictate its policy on China-- i.e., balancing its relations with PRC while denouncing its atrocities, something beyond imagination and inconsiderate towards its victims. NZ then looked like the impostor among the Five Eyes, a traitor in the cause against the PRC hegemony, and it gained disturbing praises from PRC media.
ROC may fear not as a significant power transfer is happening in Samoa, which had seen close ties with PRC. The PRC-sympathetic Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) lost to the newly-formed Fa'atuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (FAST; Faith in One True God) party, and prime minister-elect Fiame Naomi Mata'afa scrapped the CCP-backed plans by the HRPP regime to build a port in Vaiusu Bay, questioning the sustainability and integrity of the loans offered by PRC. The Taiwan-based authorities may try reaching out with her administration even before it is established and the ongoing political crisis (because outgoing PM Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi refuses to concede) is settled.
One recent development in the tension in the Pacific battlegr-- I mean, sea is the failure to bid for an undersea cable project in the Micronesian region; HMN Technologies, formerly Huawei Marine Networks, is blacklisted by the American commerce ministry and was part of the World Bank-led bid, and the USA's concerns of compromised cybersecurity if the PRC-based HMN win the bid led the three beneficiary nations-- Kiribati, FSM and Nauru-- to shun the proposal as no replacement for HMN was found.
These are the current developments in the Chinas' struggle for influence in Oceania. This had involved dirty politics and economic conflicts, but what must reign is regional security and integrity of the Oceanian nations, which are being undermined in the power plays.
Article posted on 30 June 2021, 07:00 (UTC _08:00). Part of the CCP@100 series.
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