MANILA TIMES

THE National Capital Region (NCR) may be on "moderate risk" status before the end of January as the coronavirus disease 2019 cases continue to decrease, according to OCTA Research on Saturday.

Based on calculations by Senior Research Fellow, Dr. Guido David, the NCR's reproduction number has gone down to 0.5, based on 2,256 new cases reported on Friday, the lowest daily count since December 31 when the cases surged due to the Omicron variant.

David also said that the seven-day average positivity rate is now at 21 percent while the one-week growth rate is at -69 percent.

While the current numbers are still below the projections made on January 20, David said the region is still expected to reach "moderate risk" by the end of the month, while a "low risk" classification will depend on how quickly cases will decrease to 1,000 cases in the region,

In Cebu City, David said that Covid-19 cases may have reached their peak and was now on a downward trend, with its reproduction number of 2.03 on January 25, lower than the 3.94 during the week of January 18.

Despite the decrease, the city's Average Daily Attack Rate (ADAR) from January 22-28 is at 62.27 cases per 100,000 population and its positivity rate at 39 percent. This puts Cebu under "moderate risk" based on OCTA's own indicators.

OCTA's risk indicators are based on the Covid Act Now by the Harvard School of Public Health and is different from that which the Department of Health (DoH) uses.