In the latest senatorial survey conducted by Oculum Research and Analytics, former president Rodrigo Duterte, former senator Vicente "Tito" Sotto III, and ACT-CIS Partylist Representative Erwin Tulfo have emerged as top contenders for the 2025 senatorial elections in the Philippines. Each garnering substantial support, they share the lead within the margin of error, indicating a highly competitive race ahead.
The survey results show Duterte, Sotto, and Tulfo each receiving substantial percentages of potential votes—53%, 53%, and 52% respectively. This high level of support is matched by their significant public visibility, which appears to be a key factor in their electoral appeal. According to Dr. Joseph Mercado, chief statistician at Oculum, the correlation between high awareness and voting preference underscores the importance of public visibility in the electoral process.
The list of potential senatorial candidates also includes notable figures such as Isko Moreno (45%), Manny Pacquiao (43%), and Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa (41%), among others. These candidates also show a strong presence in the public eye, which significantly enhances their appeal to voters.
Conversely, other well-known personalities like Leni Robredo, Gregorio Honasan, Manuel Roxas III, and Kiko Pangilinan, despite having high awareness ratings above 87%, have not translated this visibility into strong voting intentions, with preferences below 23%. This discrepancy highlights that while visibility is crucial, it does not automatically guarantee voter support.
The survey, conducted from February 21 to 29, 2024, included responses from 3,000 participants across various regions of the Philippines, ensuring a representative sample. The margin of error is ± 2 percentage points with a 97% confidence level, reflecting the reliability of the data.
This early indication of voter preferences provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the upcoming senatorial race, emphasizing the complex interplay between candidate visibility, public perception, and electoral success. As the political landscape continues to evolve, these figures will play a significant role in shaping the strategies of candidates and parties alike.
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